Snow? Really? Snow? All Signs Point to Yes

by on February 21, 2011

Last Friday, the UW’s Cliff Mass was running the models and snow kept popping up: “The model forecasts for next Wednesday and Thursday would warm the heart of a polar bear. You want a high amplitude trough, well positioned to bring in cold air…you got it.” 

But the models have forecast snow before, and the key elements have skittered around enough in the intervening days that nothing much has appeared. “I won’t get too excited about this until Monday,” wrote Mass.

Now it’s Monday, and KOMO’s Scott Sistek sounds pretty confident in flakes for the week ahead: “Snow chances begin as early as Monday night, but low elevation areas don’t really have potential to see any accumulations until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.” 


Tuesday there’ll likely be a convergence zone playing impishly with where winter weather appears in force, but, says Sistek, “Wednesday midday through Thursday morning is our best chance of lowland snow of the week, with greatest chances for getting snow and accumulations north of Seattle.” Here’s the updated National Weather Service forecast for the week, also picking on Wednesday as a good snow day: 


WEDNESDAY…RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT…SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

UPDATE: Here’s Cliff Mass as of Monday night:

Update 10:30 PM: Lots of report of ice pellets, graupel, and wet snow in the convergence zone and in the foothills. New model runs in…still very threatening for snow.

Update 7:15 PM–the convergence zone has formed and I can hear ice pellets on my window!

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