Michael van Baker

I happen to know the precise level of genius involved because in January 2008 I took a passenger ferry ride to Port Townsend. Sailings sold out--and this was in the heart of winter.

There was an immediate push at the time to extend what was a temporary arrangement, but no dice. Facing enormous, unsustainable fuel costs for its jumbo ferries, the state was nonetheless "getting out of the passenger ferry business."

Now, Port of Port of Townsend officials (Look, how about Port Squared Townsend?) are trying to put the pieces together for a passenger ferry again, and they have gotten help from U.S. Sen. Patty Murray's office.

Recently, Murray recommended that $1 million in federal transportation money be allocated for capital costs associated with setting up a passenger ferry. Final word should come about mid-November, and if all goes well, next summer could bring clear sailing.

Seattle Transit Blog has been following this story for ages: Back in February, Port Townsend "applied for a Federal Highways and Transportation Administration appropriation to buy a small passenger ferry to run commuter trips daily between Port Townsend and Seattle," reported Peninsula Daily News. They were angling for either daily service, or failing that, weekend service for daytrippers, borrowing a 149-passenger catamaran from the Port of Kingston.

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Objections by Jefferson County Commissioner Phil Johnson were that it would a) use fuel, and b) turn Port Townsend into a bedroom community. I think we can safely agree that a) fuel is an accepted expense with ferry service and b) Port Townsend should be so lucky, Mr. Johnson.

Officials say that, depending on the boat, the trip could take either one or two hours, and that the smallest boat they'd consider is 69 passengers. One concern is the amount of chop, which is tough on the boat and passengers--it made everyone in my party reach for the Dramamine on the return trip.

But Port Townsend is a great day-trip or weekend destination, no two ways about it. There are sights, food and drink options, and plenty of entertainment. And the mini-cruise it takes to get there only adds to the anticipation.

As you may know, I like to keep an eye on the motivated sellers on Capitol Hill, as a kind of market barometer. Here's a special case, likely due to financing.

This one bedroom is on the second floor of a 1924 brick co-op near Seattle University, 1136 13th Ave. Redfin says it's been listed for over a year; Windermere has it selling originally for $175,000, now for $149,000.

It's 600 square feet, with a redone kitchen: granite countertop, slate floor. It comes with a stacked washer/dryer combo, and the HOA dues of $312 include earthquake insurance (because brick, see). It faces south, which is terrific, and there's a large walk-in closet. Downside, baseboard heat, not FHA-approved. I imagine that last is a sticking point for bargain shoppers.

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With a 20-percent down payment, your mortgage and HOA could still be under $1,000 per month. And, you have to like the location. At 13th & Union, you're blocks away from everywhere you want to be (i.e., Café Presse and Stumptown, Piecora's, the Pike/Pine corridor, Pony...really, anything fun that begins with "P"). Assuming it doesn't fall down around your ears in the Big One, you're in a good spot.

If you're attending Tristan and Isolde's opening night at Seattle Opera this Saturday, the word from SDOT is to arrive early. Like, 5 p.m. may be good.

Both the Torchlight Parade (7:30 p.m.) and Torchlight Run (6:30 p.m.) conflict with the opera's 6:30 p.m. curtain time. The south side of Seattle Center is a no-go zone; the run crosses Denny twice, closing the street to traffic, so there will be significant congestion.

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SDOT suggests--besides arriving very early--that you approach the Seattle Center via Aurora or I-5. Here's what you need to know besides Denny equals "here there be monsters." The parade will be staging on Mercer Street, with one or two lanes open, and will head south down 5th Avenue, then to 4th Avenue.

If you take Aurora, remember the Broad Street exit is closed, so you need to exit on a side street. From I-5, you'll take Broad Street to Harrison to 5th. You'll be able to take 5th Avenue northbound to Roy, if you're heading to the parking garage. Just don't count on traffic moving quickly as the parade time nears.

It's viral and virile, isn't it? Here's the enigmatic set-up: "A few weeks ago, the 2010 AquaSox pitching staff decided to grow mustaches. Slowly but surely the mustaches have crept on to the faces of over a dozen players. Can you match the man to the mustache?"

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Part of the Library's budget now goes to keep all its windows shiny.

In desperate times, the first move is outsource economic responsibility onto a specific, but not-too-vocal "sinning" population. State facing a multi-billion-dollar deficit? Soda-drinkers, gum-chewers, you're up. Library facing cutbacks? Late-returners, whip out the checkbook.

But with desperation driving the change, these responses are not necessarily fair or effective. It's one thing to recoup formerly externalized costs, and in so doing plug a leaky budget. It's another to try to reach into people's wallets for what's handy. Especially when it comes to publicly funded services, like libraries.

On Monday, the Seattle Public Library sent out a news release saying they were "considering" raising fines for overdue materials "to encourage their timely return for use by others and to help offset budget reductions."

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But the rest of the release is short on the timely return strategy, and long on how the extra income would help the Library make up for the $3 million in budget cuts they are implementing this year. By "short," I mean there is no evidence provided at all of the scope of late returns, or an estimation of the impact of a $0.10 increase, to $0.25 per day for books, from $0.15. (Fees range depending upon the item borrowed.)

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The Library's release provides no information on the scope of the late-return problem. There was nothing to indicate the methodology they had used to reach a fee increase that would optimally affect on-time return rates.

I emailed the Library's communications director, Andra Addison, the following, but haven't heard back:

I'm wondering what the background numbers are on late returns in general. How big a problem is it? Are most late returns within a week of due date, or do a significant number stretch out for more than that? I ask because even $0.25 a day is an absurdly low amount when it comes to prompting a behavioral change. [...] If you've got research on this I'd love to hear about it.

The lack of information is irksome because the Library is requesting "public comment on the proposed changes to fines and fees at its 4:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 25 meeting at the Central Library, 1000 Fourth Ave., Level 4." What sort of comment do they expect to hear if they have not provided any rationale for the change, other than, "We'd like to charge people more money again"?

Even the five cent increase for printing from computers (to $0.15 per page) is not accompanied by the most basic assurance that this covers Library costs, or is x percentage of the costs. Again, I'm not arguing that fees should or shouldn't increase--my initial take is that if late returns are a real issue, a dime increase isn't going to give you much leverage. But what, exactly, is the plan here?

UPDATE: I still don't know what the plan is, but Andra did send me details on the Library's overdue materials. The good news is that right at this moment, 92.7 percent of the 412,000 items checked out are not overdue. Then about half of the overdue materials are overdue one week or less, and half are more than that. A full 3,000 are a month (or more) overdue; if SPL could shake the late fee increase out of them, that'd be $9,000 more than currently, $22,500 altogether.

Still, 6,000 items are between one week and two weeks overdue. That's not, "Whoops, I forgot this was due yesterday." It's a whole borrower cycle (for books, two for DVDs, which get checked out one week at a time). If SPL increases the fee by ten cents, to a quarter, this group might pay (let's split the difference, at 10.5 days) a total of $15,750. That just $2.62 in fees per item.

Now think about this as a library borrower: How much is it worth it to you to not wait an extra two weeks to get a book? And how much would it take to get you to run to the library in the middle of the night to avoid another day of overdue fees? Is $2.62 the answer?

As I write this, I'm starting to think the best solution is graduated fees. The first week overdue, perhaps the $0.25 fee. But longer than that, I'd guess that at least $1 per day is needed to provoke the frantic searching necessary to get the item returned before it gets lost forever. See how consistent that 3,000 overdue items is, at three and four weeks out? $1 per day might even generate the same amount of money from the two-week overdue group, while cutting down on the number of overdue items drastically.

The additional factor to consider is the relationship between time overdue and lost books--if there's a significant correlation (i.e., length of time overdue increases the chance of book loss), you'd want to weight the overdue fees to take into account replacement costs.

Construction repairing the west approach of the NE 45th Street Viaduct is right on schedule, says SDOT. The walls are more than 30 percent complete, and the reopening should occur on Friday, September 10, the day before the Huskies' first home game. If this shot has merely whet your appetite, SDOT has been taking their own pictures of the work, and posting them to Flickr.

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Escala's news release last Wednesday reported 65 new sales, with 38 closings, in the last three months. That's 38 of a total of 275 units, after the condo tower reopened with prices reduced 20 to 50 percent at the end of March. (Last February, the PSBJ was reporting that only six units had sold, and current King County tax records show just eleven units in private ownership.)

Designed by Thoryk Architecture (Mulvanney G2 were architects of record, and DiLeonardo International, Inc., did the interior design), the 30-floor, $370-million tower from developer Lexas Companies has come down in the world since 2006, when you could "reserve a home" with a $10,000 deposit. (Urbnlivn took the video above, and wrote a review, after touring an open house.)

The idea was to overwhelm Seattle's highest-living with luxury amenities, including a "spa, library, billiard room, theatre/screening room, fitness center with a lap pool, a catering kitchen, a formal dining room, and an events center." There was a marble staircase at the entrance, of course.

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In 2007, as the Seattle Times reported, it was the "year of the condo" in Seattle: "Real-estate economist Matthew Gardner shared Thyer's optimism, telling an audience of about 700 that demand for new places to live downtown will remain 'very positive.'"

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Initially, the prices at Escala were to range from $500,000 to $4 million (with a $12 million penthouse). But by the time the project was finished in fall of 2009, the real estate market was not what it once was. (Escala's original backer, Fremont General Corp., filed for bankruptcy in 2008.)

Escala's developers had been introduced to the concept of "price-taking" when, about the same time their lender was filing for bankruptcy, they raised prices slightly, to show hesitant buyers that a better deal was not just around the corner. In December 2009, they claimed 78 sales from buyers under contract. In January 2010, they had 67 buyers under contract--at the end of February, 67.

By the time they made the 20 to 50 percent price reduction official, and dropped HOA dues to $500 from about $800 per month, Seattle Bubble was beside itself. If my math is correct, the six original full-price closings plus the new 38 (at the new prices ranging from $384,000 to about $2.3 million), bring the total to 44, or 16 percent.

Of the six original buyers, one paid $4.1 million for a unit recently appraised by King County for $708,000. Some of Escala's $384,000 bargains (the one-bedrooms are over 900 sq. ft.) are now appraising at between $264,000 and $275,000. Interestingly, those $384,000 condos are supposed to be FHA-approved, though the FHA requires 50-percent owner occupancy, and 44 units in a 275-unit building is not that.

That sales streak had better keep up, but considering that the last three months in real estate were fired by a tax-credit window closing, and that the rate of home sales since have slowed, can an auction be far off? And even granting that hypothetical, how many units could an auctioneer hope to move?

The Fleet Foxes' mini-tour documentary (14 minutes) is up on their website (not embeddable, sigh). Sean Pecknold filmed it while Robin solo was opening for Joanna Newsom. They also have some pleasantly large videos to enjoy. Robin and Joanna play the Moore next Wednesday, and looks like some balcony tickets are still available.

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Conductor Asher Fisch

Tristan and Isolde (running July 31 to August 21) is the draw for this summer's Richard Wagner festival at Seattle Opera. Directed by Peter Kazaras, the man who brought you a Falstaff for the ages, this Tristan will be conducted by Asher Fisch, and stars tenor Clifton Forbis and soprano Annalena Persson as the most love-drunk couple in all of opera.

What makes Wagner's opera rise above its origins in the legendary is, of course, the music. It's not that Wagner improved upon the story of a love triangle gone sideways, so much as he put some bass behind it, metaphorically speaking.

Seeking to capture the emotional transport of total infatuation, Wagner spun out a score that's a kind of alternate bubbleverse: The norms of time and space don't apply, and neither does concern for the ethics of who's married to whom.

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Director Peter Kazaras

The tragedy of Tristan and Isolde, seen from afar, is how caught up they are by something beyond their control--and to give you a sense of what it's like, Wagner immerses you in four hour and thirty minutes of music that's crushed-out, yearning, and pheremonally volatile as an alley cat.

Seattle Opera's site includes videos of conductor Fisch, director Kazaras, and Speight Jenkins, as well as a look at the new set from Robert Israel. UWTV is rerunning a video introduction to the opera I helped create, back in the day, starring the Opera's late education director Perry Lorenzo. "Inside Opera: Tristan and Isolde" is showing ten times from July 30 to August 14, or you can also watch it online.

Madison Park's beach is a prime source of Seattle's vitamin D intake.

Good news from the New York Times: "Given appropriate sun exposure in summer, it is possible to meet the body's yearlong need for vitamin D." Didn't know you could store up the D like a battery, did you? (Fun fact: it's actually a steroid hormone, not a true vitamin--if you get enough sun you don't need another source.)

The consulting physician on the article, Boston U's Dr. Michael Holick, suggests you take sun breaks "from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. two or three times a week for 5 to 10 minutes." Put sunscreen only on your face, and--think Lady Gaga--maximize your skin exposure.

What's the big idea? Nutritionists have discovered that we aren't getting nearly the amount of vitamin D that we need. While a serious vitamin D deficiency has long been known to cause rickets, it's becoming more evident that chronic low levels of vitamin D can have serious health impacts as well.

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Besides documented effects on bone health, Holick references studies that show a lack of vitamin D impacting multiple sclerosis, arthritis, type I diabetes, and immune response in general. Locally, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center has been researching vitamin D intake and colorectal cancer and breast cancer rates, and have also found that diet, geography, and lifestyle aren't good predictors of individual vitamin D levels; a blood test is the best way to be sure.

Here's the FHCRC line on vitamin D, what it does, how much you need, and how to get it.

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While a blood serum level of 40 nanograms per milliliter of 25-hydroxyvitamin D is optimal--and easy to maintain if you're outdoors frequently in sunshine--Holick says U.S. "Caucasians average 18 to 22 nanograms and African-Americans average 13 to 15 nanograms."

Again, with sun, it's easy. Holick says 15 to 20 minutes in the summer noonday sun can deliver the "equivalent to taking 20,000 IU of vitamin D orally." (Yes, there's a book.) If you start feeling droopy in winter, besides D3 supplements (1,000 to 2,000 IU day is the new, higher recommended intake), you can also feast on salmon regularly (360 IU per serving) or, better yet, halibut (510). Scroll down to see the food-derived vitamin D chart here.

One bonus of the sunbathing method is that your body knows when it's manufactured enough D; if you're increasing D levels via supplements, you can reach toxic levels. They're very high, and not easy to get to, but some people do think that if x of a vitamin is good, 10x must be terrific. Constipation and nausea is nature's way of correcting their math.