Recent Stories in Weather

I keep looking outside, since I was assured of a fine afternoon earlier by KOMO: "Thanks to a weak onshore flow encouraging the marine clouds to bunch up on into the Sound this morning, that's exactly what we'll enjoy today: patchy morning clouds, afternoon clearing, and highs in the low to middle 70s around the waterfront."

Can we get a sunbreak around here? In the meantime, please make do with this photo.

Back to you in the studio!

NOAA photo of NEXRAD installation

Our coastal radar system will be installed a year early, announced U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell yesterday. Chair of the Senate Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard Subcommittee, Cantwell had secured the millions of dollars necessary to build a new system, but this WSR-88D NEXRAD radar is coming to us from the Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi. Apparently they weren't using it, and it was just sitting there.

 "Although Washington bears the brunt of wintertime Pacific storms, our weather radar coverage has been shockingly inadequate, putting lives and property at risk," said Senator Cantwell in her announcement. "By acquiring this new radar technology and positioning the system west of the Cascades, Washingtonians can better prepare for the impact of the big Pacific storms on businesses and homes."

The radar will be sited out near Grays Harbor, with the site finalists announced this June.

"The top location is Langley Hill, located northwest of Hoquiam and about 3.5 miles east of Copalis Beach," writes University of Washington meteorologist Cliff Mass, a big proponent of coastal radar. He's especially pleased about the fact that it's a dual-polarization (polarimetric) radar that "sees" vertically and horizontally, which "allows identification of precipitation type and better estimation of rainfall intensity."

Mass expects weather forecasting in our area to make a major leap in accuracy once the radar is operational, as we'll have a much better view of Pacific storms heading our way, before they even make landfall.

First of all, if you're feeling a little out of sorts with the weather, it's not just you. And you can tell the "It's spring in Seattle, stupid, it's always like this" crowd that that's not true either. Cliff Mass has done the numbers and "For the past ten days the maximum temperature has stayed well below normal."

That said, buckle up, because there's more wet on the way. Tonight and tomorrow should bring a good soaking, we get Thursday off, and then Friday another storm seems to be shaping up that could bring strong winds as well as rain. I'll keep an eye on Cliff's blog and report back when he updates closer to the weekend. In the meantime, keep the galoshes handy, and be prepared to sprint outside on Thursday for sunbreaks.

Parts of Western Washington have already received over an inch of rain today, and a wetter week is forecast for the first week of June. Anchorage is currently 10 degrees warmer than Seattle. Forecasters agree that if we're going to have one good day this weekend, it'll be Sunday, so be prepared. In the meantime, here's a reminder that September can really nice.

I'm a little shell-shocked by the change in the weather. We went from this (above) as of 12:30 p.m., the deck at Azteca on Eastlake, to this (below), the Space Needle cam view of Lake Union as of 3 p.m. Here's KIRO 7 TV's interactive radar map, so you can see the front move through at neighborhood resolution.

I don't make these things up, people. This is exactly how these two tweets appeared in my general feed. Some people have the I Ching, I have random-but-meaningful combinations provided by Twitter.

In the unlikely event of summer arriving, I give you the link to that Red Cross Babysitter's class. In the hopefully unlikely event that your power goes out, I give you Seattle City Light's instructions on how to live through it.

My personal advice, as always, is to seek shelter at any establishment with a good happy hour and a strong scotch or bourbon selection, and let someone else take care of the lights.

The National Weather Service has a wind advisory out for the Seattle area, in effect from 1 p.m. today until midnight:

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY MIDDAY AND RISE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE WINDS WILL EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

It's a little disconcerting, the all-caps format from the NWS, isn't it? You can almost hear the Telex chattering as they stare into a monochrome CRT monitor. Anyway, expect wind, cooling temperatures, and some rain in your face as the afternoon progresses.

Cliff Mass has been watching this storm's development--it's primarily aimed at the coast, and models show an even stronger storm on the way than forecasted yesterday:

Here is the latest forecast for 5 PM tonight...pretty amazing. 989 mb low and a huge pressure gradient to its south and southeast. The simulation indicates even stronger winds than last night, with areas immediately offshore experiencing 60 kt sustained winds and hurricane-force gusts.

Yesterday he explained the wind-generating dynamics. While the low moving in doesn't pack the punch of a winter storm, our springtime "environmental pressure" is high, so there's a big differential between the two air masses. That, friends, means wind with a capital W! The coast will most likely see power outages--and we could see local outages, too, from small trees or big branches.

It's all seadevi all day on The SunBreak! Who can take a photo of the wind? seadevi can!

Power outages have already begun (the Rainier Beach outage is already fixed), thanks to high winds. On the eastern side of the state, the National Weather Service warns of dust storms (which can sometimes be big enough to be seen from space--visibility is terrible while you're in one). For the Puget Sound, we've got a wind advisory until about 7 p.m., which means winds from 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 50. Here's Seattle City Light's "When the power goes out" page.

The Seattle Red Cross says stay safe, and be prepared with this list of tips:

Prepare for High Winds

• Move or secure lawn furniture, outdoor decorations or ornaments, trash cans, hanging plants and anything else that can be picked up by wind and become a projectile.
• During the storm, draw blinds and shades over windows. If windows break due to objects blown by the wind, the shades will prevent glass from shattering into your home. ... (more)

NO, NOT YET

UPDATE: As of 11:15, sustained winds at 520 have picked up to 20-25 mph. 12:36 brought a 37-mph gust! 1:20--winds are keeping around 30 mph, with gusts up to 39. 1:40ish: new gust record of 48 mph! WSDOT's rules for bridge closure, by the way, are as follows: "The criteria for closing the bridge to traffic and opening the draw span is 50 mph gusts sustained for 15 minutes. When a 40 mph gust is sustained for one minute, a warning alarm calls crews to the bridge for inspection and monitoring."

Hurrricane Ridge's web cam view

A few days ago, I rang up Seattle City Light to see if the winter storm pummeling the Olympics and Cascades was doing anything to replenish our snowpack--and hopefully keep the hydropower running strong this summer. The upshot was, we were going to need more than one storm.

Well, buckle up. Cliff Mass's post is titled "Stunning Day of Convection and BIG Storm Coming."

Major weather changes are in store Friday and Saturday. Moderate to heavy precipitation over the region...with a very strong low moving just north of us. Winds will be very strong over the coast (40-60 kts), northwest Washington (30-50 kt) and breezy (20-40 kt) over the PS lowlands on Friday.

The National Weather Service has Seattle under a High Wind Watch for most of Friday; they say gusts might hit 55 mph over western Washington, and if that's the case, we can count on some power outages as trees and tree branches take down power lines.

ProbCast also has our daytime chance of precipitation at 85 percent, so it sounds like Friday should be quite a day. Raincoats, yes. Umbrellas, not so much.

"Day 6 - Crews spot a Pika" courtesy of WSDOT

This cheers me up. "According to the book we looked the Pika up in" is one of the more wonderful things I'd ever expect to hear from WSDOT:

Crews spotted this little guy (or girl)--a Pika--while clearing snow off the highway. It's not a rodent. It belongs to the same order/group as rabbits and hares. According to the book that we looked the Pika up in, it says that they are extremely social creatures that live on rocky mountain slopes. They spend their days cutting grass, which they dry and cure like hay. Essentially, they're little farmers.

I've been keeping an eye on WSDOT's mountain passes advisories, given all the snow hammering the mountains, but to date they've been keeping roads clear and haven't had to announce avalanche work delays. The only thing the new powder has brought--besides "sick days" spent at ski resorts--is an extension of studded tires until April 10.

Courtesy of KIRO TV's Wildside, Summit West web cam.

I guess this counts as going out like a lion. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for Washington's Olympics and Cascades:

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE HEAVY SNOW...AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL BELOW 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

Accumulations could reach a foot through today, with almost as much dropping again overnight. Mount Baker should see significant snowfall. The web cams at White Pass and Alpental bear out the prediction. That's great news for skiers and snowboarders, but it's also bringing avalanche warnings, so back country daredevils: take a pass. Check in on WSDOT's mountain passes page to see if avalanche control is going to bring any traffic delays the next few days.

A late February snow from 2009.

Some cold and wet is sneaking past our nice El Niño pre-spring this week. Cliff Mass says it'll bring snow in the mountains by tonight and through the early part of the week. Depending upon the mysterious workings of our Puget Sound convergence zone, lowland areas may see snow showers on Monday morning and Tuesday. Later in the week, temperatures will pop back up a bit, but it's going to be more like real March weather out there.

This tree behind The SunBreak's office is budding on January 21. Even the resident squirrel looks alarmed. (The squirrel isn't in this photo, I'm just saying.)

We turn of course to UW meteorologist Cliff Mass. "The warmest January on record was in 2006 when the daily average was 46.6F. So at this rate we are on track to beat it...IF...we stay warm," he writes on his blog. "We are experiencing April temperatures in mid January ... Many of our days have hit highs 5-13 F ABOVE NORMAL, and our minima have generally been higher than the normal maxes."

This weekend temperatures may dip toward normal, but next week brings a pineapple express that will re-balm-ify things, and may put this January in the record books.

The El Niño weather pattern has brought an extra helping of rain, in addition to unseasonable warmth. West Seattle is cleaning up from a Beach Drive hillside slide, and out at Hurricane Ridge, a 100-foot section of the road is migrating downhill. A six-week closure is planned, so the Ridge road won't open again until March....

Rain is general over Washington (see webcams), and meteorologist Cliff Mass is watching the weather models like they are presents on Christmas Eve. At the moment, wind is running 50 knots about 3,000 feet above Seattle--not gusts, sustained--and Mass says a series of disturbances could bring hurricane-force gusts to the Washington coast. KIRO TV says Hurricane Ridge could see 90-mph gusts today.

The National Weather Service is keeping most of Western Washington on flood watch through Saturday afternoon, and even if you're a blue-tarp camper, now is not a good time to visit the banks of the Skokomish River.

Yes, it is disheartening to see your iPhone display this weather forecast for the week. And with the precipitation, comes flood warnings.

"Because of the significant rainfall expected today, flood watches are issued for the Olympic Peninsula and north interior," says Lisa Van Cise of KING 5 First Alert Weather. "The rivers of most concern are the Skokomish and Nooksack.  The Skokomish is expected to reach flood stage late in the day today."

The Green River and Howard Hanson Dam seem to be spared the brunt of this soaking, though there's already seven or eight more feet of water behind the dam than last week. The Green River webcams say so far, so good.

Something to think about with all the rain is, counter-intuitively, cutting down on your water usage. The excess water hitting storm drains tends to overpower our sewage treatment plants. A few hundred thousand shorter showers would really help out.

Meanwhile, meteorologist Cliff Mass is celebrating an unusual occurrence: It was warmer in Seattle over the weekend than in Miami. Florida has pre-frozen citrus and a guppy die-off in the millions. We had highs in the mid-50s. Mass explains why Seattle has avoided the rest of the nation's deep-freeze here. Short answer: Thank Eastern Washington for sponging up any cold that spills over the Rockies, and the Cascades for keeping the freezer door shut.

From KING 5: "Skies were clear overnight allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s this morning. Light winds and moist ground have produced widespread fog and freezing fog this morning especially from Tacoma southward." We are promised rain for this afternoon, but right now, it's got my iPhone all mixed up.

AccuWeather claims it's 33 degrees right now, but it doesn't feel like it. A quick tour of Capitol Hill water features confirms that below freezing is the order of the day. Here are some Red Cross safety tips, while I'm at it, on dealing with frozen pipes. Cliff Mass says last night might have been the coldest night of the whole winter, for many. Seattle's severe weather shelters are open for business.

Cal Anderson Park, sunny, 31 degrees. Look for overnight lows in the 20s through Wednesday.

Break out the galoshes.

Back on Friday, Cliff Mass was predicting a major pineapple express "event" starting today through Wednesday. His update post yesterday forecasts heavy rains on the southwest side of the Olympic mountain range. Heavy in this case means 2-5 inches on Monday and 10-20 inches on Tuesday. The North Cascades will also likely get flood-producing rain, though it looks like the Green River valley area may duck the brunt of this storm.

In Seattle, we will awake to a suddenly balmy (well, upper 50s) Monday, with the attendant winds produced by major temperature shifts. The National Weather Service has nothing but rain and showers for Seattle today through Saturday. That's a whole week of stomping in puddles!

If you want to stomp in puddles for the civic good, join the city's Adopt-A-Drain program and help keep your street's storm drains clear of leaves and debris.

Aerial view of Howard Hanson Dam courtesy of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Last week, because of successful repair work to the Howard Hanson Dam, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers cut the risk of the Green River valley flooding this winter from 1-in-3 to 1-in-25. That's a significant improvement, although normal odds are 1-in-140. 

Even with the wild, wet weather the past few days, the USACE has not needed to let the dam's reservoir fill appreciably. (Here are recent dam inflow/outflow numbers.) Besides, with the repair work, the USACE now says the dam's reservoir level could rise to above 1,206 feet in elevation without fear of damage to the dam. And the Green River itself is nowhere near a flood alert stage.

Still, if you live in the area, keep this Green River/Howard Hanson Dam information page bookmarked, and it may not hurt to pick up the free sandbags King County is offering.

This is a webcam screenshot from out by Forks, Washington, fictional home of Twilight. Cliff Mass reports that the National Weather Service has put out an advisory for swells of at least 25 feet reaching the beach. The buoys off the coast are seeing some significant vertical displacement. The giant waves will hit every 15 to 20 seconds, and should an unsuspecting vampire stroll out to take a closer look during a lull, tragedy could strike. The high surf advisory (which needs a more dangerous-sounding name) is in effect until 4 p.m. Saturday.

Parella Lewis

"Why," I wondered, "is a TV weather forecaster part of the Washington's Most Wanted team?" This seemed like a form of modern metaphysical poetry: heterogeneous ideas yoked together by violence.

I met Parella Lewis in a Starbucks before she was due in at Q13 offices, determined to get to the bottom of this, like a newshound in an ersatz Jonathan Lethem novel. She was dressed for the weather. Point: Lewis.

I had researched, of course. First question/broadside: "I see that you are from Louisiana. Yet you never mention Jimmy Buffett." Turns out Lewis was born in Mississippi, is "not a cajun," but does love crawfish, in boiled or etouffée formats. She came to crawfish late, in her 20s. Relevant? Too soon to tell. Her anti-Buffett stance (not loving Jimmy is anti-) makes sense: the man's a pirate, an outlaw.

Lewis was on a two-track media-and-mayhem course from early on. She began in radio, which accounts for that cadenced enunciation you hear, while in college. But her goal back then was police work, despite the fact that she's medium height and willowy. (Since Wayne Cody, everyone in Seattle TV is thinner than me.) She attended the police academy, graduated in '99, and went to work as a reserve officer on the Lafayette force, logging 30 hours per month as a crime-buster.

She talked her way into undercover work early, and soon reported to her parents (her father is a preacher) that she'd be working as "an undercover hooker." This turned out to require a "gun in your back pocket, and a wire on," as well as detailed knowledge of Louisiana's Napoleonic Code. There was an awkward moment when she was solicited by ex-high schoolmates who, fortunately for everyone involved, didn't recognize her.

Yet, in the meantime, an appearance on a local TV telethon catapulted her out of radio and into the local TV market. Would she trade in her police uniform for forecasting courses? She would. Leaving Louisiana, she moved to Little Rock and then Indianapolis, becoming well acquainted with tornado weather. (A nearby tornado brought a finish flag to the 2004 Indy 500 at lap 450.)

Seattle, across the country, far from family and friends, was not her ideal destination. Even our bad weather doesn't match up. In Louisiana, floods mean "bodies float away regularly," said Lewis--tombs and crypts keep the dead six feet in the air.

Here, the tricky part is not where the funnel will touch down, but the effects of micro-climates on whether it's raining when you look outside or partly sunny. Lewis, in about 30 seconds, gave me a mini-lecture on the interaction of ocean air with the effects of the Olympic and Cascade mountains. Automatically, her voice shifted into that incantatory weather-forecaster mode....

Our volunteers reenact the fall from a 20-foot wave. Photo courtesy of the Seattle Municipal Archives.

Cliff Mass posted last night about a big storm over the ocean on Thursday: "They don't call these storms hurricanes because they aren't tropical, but they pack a bigger punch. Huge size and big winds. And very, very dangerous to be near them on the water."

Models show 40-foot waves out on the ocean proper, and 20 to 30-foot swells which will roll up the Washington coast. Mass suggests Westport or Ocean Shores for a front-row seat on the maritime action. The mention of surf spot Westport made me wonder if any of the big wave riders are hastening that direction.

I'm not a strong swimmer, so I am far from encouraging anyone to take to their board--in fact, if you go just to watch, I'd suggest you keep your distance. People have been washed away and drowned by swells a lot smaller than you'd think would do the trick. And that's not even mentioning those crushed by drift logs. It's probably safest just to stay home and watch this Ocean Shores webcam, come to think of it.