Everyone else is doing it, everywhere, seemingly all at once: guessing which film’s will take home trophies this weekend at the 95th Academy Awards. We couldn’t resist the chance to make our own predictions and chat about what might happen on Sunday evening. Morgen and Josh, having recently voted for the Seattle Film Critics Society’s annual awards (which went big for Everything Everywhere All At Once), chime in on how we think the Oscars will turn out (and how they should go if we were in charge).
Best Picture
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- TÁR
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Everything Everywhere All At Once | Everything Everywhere All At Once |
| Should Win | Tár | Triangle of Sadness |
Josh: Overall, a great year for the nominees. Usually there’s a villain in the list to root against, but I mostly liked the whole field. But there’s no room for intrigue here; so let’s admit this one’s fully cooked. Everything Everywhere All At Once has won (almost) all the guild awards as well as the most important predictor: the SFCS Salmon. On my SFCS ballot, as with my year-end list, I ranked TÁR ever-so-slightly higher, but the Daniels multiversal family action comedy can’t be denied. If you had told me, even six months ago, that a movie with butt plugs, hot dog fingers, googly-eyed rocks, and an animatronic raccoon would even be in the conversation for an Oscar sweep, I’d have thought you’d just landed from another universe. Yet here we are, and the Academy’s all the better for it. Easily one of my favorites of the year and one that’s held up well to re-watches (and one I’ve actually wanted to revisit, which is something I can’t say for the whole field).
Here’s my preferential ballot: 1) Tár, 2) Everything Everywhere All At Once, 3) The Fabelmans, 4) The Banshees of Inisherin, 5) Women Taking, 6) Triangle of Sadness, 7) Top Gun: Maverick, 8) Avatar: the Way of Water, 9) Elvis, 10) All Quiet on the Western Front
Morgen: It’s been a long time coming for the folks of Everything Everywhere All At Once to be nominated for an Oscar in roles where they weren’t sidekicks, the butt of a joke or some other equally degrading film mechanic that was anything but the lead. The film is incredibly fun, thoughtful and heartfelt, so for these and many other other reasons I won’t be bothered in the slightest that this film wins the big prize. But just to be devil’s advocate, the first time I saw it I wasn’t sure how I felt, but the moment after I finished Triangle of Sadness, a dark, satirical comedy about the fragility of power and what it can do to us, I was in love. If it won, I may even be disappointed but I wanted to tout one of my favorite films just for kicks.
Best Director
- Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
- Todd Field, TÁR
- Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Daniels | Spielberg |
| Should Win | Spielberg | Daniels |
Josh: For the sake of novelty, I’m pulling for a director / picture split at this year’s awards. Spielberg opened his heart, handed out skeleton keys to his lifetime of filmmaking, and it’s seemingly been met with a collective shrug. Appreciate one of our greatest living filmmakers while he’s still working, it’s been decades since he last won.
Morgen: While The Fabelmans hasn’t exactly gotten the bounty of gushing reviews that I expected, Spielberg is an institution and this is a very personal film for him… so just because I think the committee will choose this as a way to show him respect for all that he’s done. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve seen weirder things happen. While I waffle a bit on whether it was the best film of the year, the direction for Everything Everywhere All At Once was beautiful and I can only imagine a crazy jumble to put onto screen, so for difficulty alone to pull off something so weird and wonderful I have to give it to the Daniels.
Best Actress
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
- Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Michelle Yeoh | Michelle Yeoh |
| Should Win | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett |
Name: Only a grinch would deny Michelle Yeoh’s heartwarming and history-making ascent to best actress, and that grinch is prize-hungry Lydia Tár. I love both performances, but Cate made me believe in the singular terrifying vision of a power-mad conductor on the precipice.
Morgen: Just as with the film she graces, Yoeh has been waiting for too many decades to be nominated for a beautifully crafted character and I don’t want to deny her that win. She’s worth it. However, I’m still thinking about Cate Blanchett’s performance in TÁR and how much I hate the character, but love her passion; a sight to behold.
Best Actor
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Paul Mescal, Aftersun
- Bill Nighy, Living
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Austin Butler | Brendan Fraser |
| Should Win | Colin Farrell | Colin Farrell |
Josh: This one is killing me. Colin Farrell and his miraculous eyebrows did wonders in the Banshees of Inisherin, but I fear that the Academy loves nothing more than an actor getting all dressed up to impersonate a real historical figure, particularly when it’s one who sings, dances, and undergoes a physical transformation and is also extremely hot in real life. I didn’t love Elvis, but Austin Butler was the least of its problems. There’s another “transformation” in this race, but despite my usual completist tendencies, I couldn’t bring myself to watch the Whale (I read Lindy West’s hilarious scathing blow-by-blow recap/critique instead) Given that Rami Malek won for the atrocious gap-toothed, chipmunk-cheeked Bohemian Rhapsody, I can’t even be mad at Austin’s ascension.
Morgen: I have a lot of feelings about The Whale, and most of them aren’t terrific. While the film itself was well done the concept and voice behind it were tone-deaf to the actual people they were portraying. However, it got a standing ovation and like Josh says, the Academy loves folks dressing up like someone else and impersonating a powerful figure… especially an emotionally wrought one. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Colin Farrell blew me away in Banshees of Inisherin (and again in After Yang, which floors me even more), so it would be great if he was recognize for that, and his great eyebrows, but alas probably not.
Best Supporting Actress
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau, The Whale
- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Angela Bassett | Jamie Lee Curtis |
| Should Win | Jamie Lee Curtis | Stephanie Hsu |
Josh: I don’t envy voters in this category … Angela Bassett was the best part of a pretty-uneven Wakanda Forever. But I’d be tempted to vote for “nepo baby” Jamie Lee Curtis. Both of them have incredible careers, yet neither of them have an Oscar. Unless voters decide that this is the last shot to honor Banshees, one of them will end their career droughts on Sunday. No matter what, the acceptance speech will be epic.
Morgen: Historically a comedian but with a beauty to back it up, Jamie Lee Curtis threw people when she showed up on screen with a boring haircut and a pooch belly (which spurred a massive discussion online on whether the belly was real or not… WHO CARES?! Ugh.). Relying on her comedic ability alone this time she was able to shine a little brighter on screen and I loved it, and I think the Academy will too. On the other hand, Stephanie Hsu, a newcomer amongst the veteran cast, wasn’t overshadowed and instead brought the film together even if her character wasn’t given the funny, charming or ridiculous moments that the rest had. I’m impressed and it needed saying.
Best Supporting Actor
- Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
- Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Ke Huy Quan | Ke Huy Quan |
| Should Win | Barry Keoghan | Ke Huy Quan |
Josh: Ke Huy Quan’s going to win and it’s both for his performance(s) as many different versions of Waymond. but I also loved what Barry Keoghan did in Banshees of Inisherin. (As an aside: Incidentally, Oscar catch-up motivated me to watch Causeway and it’s really nicely done. Check it out on AppleTV+ after the dust on awards season settles). If I were a member of the academy, Barry would have my vote but I’d still be thrilled when Ke Huy Quan’s makes his final acceptance of a long season that he’s dominated with both a phenomenal performance and a truly remarkable comeback story.
Josh: Ke Huy Quan helped to create and sustain the world that made Everything Everywhere All At Once so powerful. Without throwing everything he had into the characters and creation of the multiverse story it would not have worked. Despite the wonderful performances of his fellow actors it just wouldn’t have worked without him and for that reason alone he deserves this prize. On top of that, he’s waited long enough for it so damn… just give it to him.
Original Screenplay
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- TÁR
- Triangle of Sadness
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | EEAAO | EEAAO |
| Should Win | Banshees | TÁR |
Josh: this is a great category and I really liked all the nominees. Still, I’m predicting EEAAO to win everything and I don’t need to see two Daniels give three speeches. So if itit were up to me I’d spread the wealth to any of these other very worthy contenders.
Morgen: This was genuinely a tough choice, there are so many great films that came from original screenplays. I think Josh is right and EEAAO will probably win several, if not all, categories they’re up for, but any one of these would be worthy.
Adapted Screenplay
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Women Talking
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Women Talking | |
| Should Win | Women Talking |
Josh: Women Talking was a Telluride standout for me and I’m surprised it didn’t make a bigger splash throughout awards season. Sarah Polley is great and I’m hoping / expecting that this is the place to give the film a little much-needed love.
International Feature
- All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
- Argentina, 1985, Argentina
- Close, Belgium
- EO, Poland
- The Quiet Girl, Ireland
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | All Quiet on the Western Front | All Quiet on the Western Front |
| Should Win | EO | Close |
Josh: EO was near the top of my 2022 list, but my beloved donkey doesn’t stand a chance against the onslaught of a Netflix produced film that’s also nominated for Best picture.
Morgen: I haven’t talked enough about Close. A poignant, heart-crushing, beautifully acted film from Belgium about two young boys that love each other unconditionally, but social pressures about what that love means causes a rip between them causing an avalanche of destruction that could not be undone. A sadness comes over me just thinking about the story and that really means something. So I wish they could be the big winners here but there’s been far too much hype for All Quiet on the Western Front to be denied.
Documentary Feature
- All That Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- A House Made of Splinters
- Navalny
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Navalny | Navalny |
| Should Win | All the Beauty and the Bloodshed | All the Beauty and the Bloodshed |
Josh: I’ve seen four of these and they’re all really solid. I’m predicting Navalny seems like the kind of film that’ll capture the most votes – it plays like a thriller, leaves on a strong note, and is especially timely given the state of the world. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is a remarkable piece of collaborative documentary that weaves together biography with a career retrospective and ties it to vital activism against the corporate-created opioid epidemic. What Nan Goldin and Laura Poitras did with this film is tremendous, but it’s an uphill battle. Nevertheless, I’d encourage everyone to check these all out (I still haven’t stopped thinking of those brothers and their birds from All the Breathes, which is right there waiting for you on HBOmax or the lyrical volcanic romance of Fire of Love). It’s a stellar crop of nominees with very diverse ways of telling stories.
Name: Josh has gotten straight to the heart of it. Documentaries aren’t exactly at the top of my list most years, but damn if there wasn’t a reason to set that aside this year. Navalny is quite the page turner, and the festival opener at SIFF this year to boot so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at the top spot.
Animated Feature
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- The Sea Beast
- Turning Red
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Pinocchio | Pinocchio |
| Should Win | Marcel the Shell with Shoes On | Marcel the Shell with Shoes On |
Josh: Marcel stuck with me all year and I couldn’t finish Pinocchio because I was too creeped out by the animation and singing. But Guillermo del Toro is widely believed and I know I’m an outlier for not falling from his intricate stop-motion fairy tale. Sorry Shells, it wasn’t your year.
Morgen: Hot take, I wasn’t super excited about Pinocchio. However, del Toro has been working on it for a decade, it’s a well-known story and it was beautifully animated so I’m pretty much betting on it being a shoe in. Not so hot take, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On made me cry several times… yep, a stop animation movie about a tiny shell with googly eyes made me cry. If you’ve seen it, then you have too, probably. It was marvelous and deserves to take home the trophy.
Quick thoughts on the rest of the categories
In a more perfect world, ABC would split the show according to this brilliant proposal — hours of technical awards for the cinephiles, a big halftime show, and then the “main event”. But until then, they’ll keep the order off balance to hook die-hards in for the full three hours. Our thoughts on some of the important, but below-the-line categories.
Cinematography
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
- Elvis
- Empire of Light
- TÁR
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Elvis | Elvis |
| Should Win | TÁR | TÁR |
Josh: what a weird set of nominees! I can’t wrap my head around some of the omissions (like Top Gun) and the inclusion of something like Empire of Light just because Deakins is a permanent nominee. I guess I’m picking Elvis here to win. It wasn’t my favorite, but was a hit and seems pretty widely liked? I can also see the gloom of All Quiet dazzling, but if I were voting I’d go for the sleek chill that drew me into the swirling vortex of Lydia Tár.
Morgen: I’ll be real, I want Elvis to win because it would mean the first female Cinematographer ever would get it. That’s not exactly a good enough reason for Mandy Walker to win, I’d rather it be won by the best work and not because women have been denied access to incredible projects up until (and even including) recently, keeping them out of the running… but I digress. TÁR didn’t have anything crazy or ridiculous happen… it was just a well crafted cinematic experience and should take the trophy home.
Editing
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- TÁR
- Top Gun: Maverick
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | EEAAO | EEAAO |
| Should Win | EEAAO | EEAAO |
Josh: EEAAO has the most editing (or at least the most obvious editing) so it’s going to win. I’d have nominated Aftersun here (among other places), but alas. This movie is a showcase of cuts and could’ve easily been a disaster if it wasn’t handled perfectly.
Morgen: Yep, EEAAO had a ton of editorial choices that needed to be made and it was done in a way that kept us captivated when it needed to and slowed down when the characters needed to grow. While the run time was a little long, I don’t remember looking at my watch. Creating a story like this can be a disaster but the story told brought it together and created an incredible sci-fi epic.
Production Design
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Elvis | Elvis |
| Should Win | Babylon | Babylon |
Josh: Again, who knows. Elvis and Babylon had a ton of locations and details, but it seems like we were the outliers in terms of not hating Babylon and not loving Elvis.
Visual Effects
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Avatar | Avatar |
| Should Win | Avatar | Black Panther |
Josh: Easiest race in the pack, this should’ve gone straight to Avatar without even holding a vote.
Morgen: I know Josh was blown away by the visual effects of Avatar and I can’t deny it (even though the 3D version made my tummy rumble on many occasions). Cameron knew what he was doing and did it eloquently, but I can’t get over how much I didn’t like the film in general so I don’t want it to win. That’s probably petty… and I admit that. It probably deserves to win, but I loved Black Panther so I’m going with that instead.
Original Score
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | All Quiet on the Western Front | Babylon |
| Should Win | Babylon | Fabelmans? Babylon? |
Josh: John Williams has lost more Oscars than probably anyone in history, and this will add to his pile of “honors to be nominated”. My guess is it’ll go to All Quiet on the Western Front on the strength of that three-note Zimmer-esque figure that repeatedly intrudes to signal oh-so-much-futile impending doom. But I left Babylon tapping my toes to it’s jazzy score and I’d probably throw my own personal vote that way.
Josh: Josh has got it right, Williams really does deserve to break this massively crappy streak, but it’s not like he’s *never* won. Babylon will take it home just for its impressively boisterous and dance-enducing offering and that’s good with me.
Sound
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | All Quiet on the Western Front | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
| Should Win | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Top Gun: Maverick | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
Josh: All Quiet on the Western Front has a sound-related title, it’s a war movie, and was nominated for a ton of awards, signaling broad support. So that’s my guess. If I had to vote, I’d probably give Top Gun: Maverick a pity vote so that the air ballet fantasy that saved theatrical distribution doesn’t go home empty-handed.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- The Whale
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Elvis | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
| Should Win | The Batman | Anything but The Whale |
Josh: This is where I lose my Oscar pool. The academy loves a fatsuit, so maybe plumping up Brendan Fraser gets a statue for the Whale? I really hope not, and maybe the Elvis technical sweep continues. Or they award a different transformation and remember that Colin Farrell was also under a ton of make-up in The Batman.
Morgen: I’ve given my thoughts about The Whale, so if it wins for this I’ll be pretty damn upset (and I think I won’t be the only one). So hopefully it’s any other nominee in the list. I’ll go with Black Panther because I noticed and reveled in the makeup and hair that many of the characters adorned throughout and that’s saying something… I don’t normally care all that much.
Costume Design
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Wakanda Forever | Elvis |
| Should Win | Mrs. Harris | Babylon |
Josh: I think some people are mad about the historical liberties taken with the Babylon costumes (or just didn’t like the movie), so I’m guessing the return to Wakanda gets Ruth Carter another Oscar. However, this was another one where I watched a movie for Oscar catch-up and Chris was right about Mrs. Harris: a real charmer with good gowns. This fairy tale of a cleaner who spends her savings in Paris would get my vote.
Morgen: Hmm perhaps Josh is right and the lack of adherence to historically accurate clothing will lose the nomination for Babylon, but I wouldn’t count them out quite yet. However, Elvis is getting so much chatter lately and to harken back to the very first category, the board loves a film where people dress up like historical figures… and I don’t think costumes are any exception to that.
Original Song
- Applause (Tell It Like a Woman)
- Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
- Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Naatu Naatu (RRR)
- This Is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
| Josh | Morgen | |
| Will Win | Naatu Naatu | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
| Should Win | Naatu Naatu | Naatu Naatu |
Josh: It’s got to be “Naatu Naatu”. I wasn’t as high on RRR as everyone else, but this song is terrific. Even better, it’s performed in the movie (in jaw-dropping, joy-inducing fashion, no less) and advances the plot. Many of the others just play over the end credits, which always feels like a cheat to me. If you’re going to reward that, then the Music branch did all of us a huge disservice for not recognizing White Noise’s wonderful end credits. Instead of giving Diane Warren her hundredth nomination, they could’ve booked LCD Soundsystem for the Oscars!
Morgen: It’s kind of hard to know what best original song actually asks of its nominees. Is it best song within the context of the film? Is it best song on its own (ie you’d listen to it over and over regardless of the film)? Is it best crafted musically? To make my choice I went with the first option and RRR is hands-down the winner. Sadly this masterpiece of a film didn’t make it into any other category, but the fact that it was recognized at all being a foreign film of a very specific genre, is exciting. The dancing, joy and silliness brought about when this song is performed in the film is what makes me want it to win.
Short Films
| Animated | Documentary | Narrative |
| The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse The Flying Sailor Ice Merchants My Year of Dicks An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It | The Elephant Whisperers Haulout How Do You Measure a Year? The Martha Mitchell Effect Stranger at the Gate | An Irish Goodbye Ivalu Le Pupille Night Ride The Red Suitcase |
Josh: Unsurprisingly I haven’t seen any of these. It would be fun to hear an Oscar presenter have to say “My Year of Dicks” so that gets my vote.
Morgen: Being the resident short film watcher at The Sunbreak, I was woefully delinquent in seeing even one of these. I don’t want to give any thoughts on which is the best, I haven’t seen nearly enough, but you can see My Year of Dicks and Le Pupille streaming on Hulu right now. Both are well worth the short runtime.
Josh: OK, OK. Maybe I should do a quick cram session between now and the big show. Until then, best of luck in all your Oscar pools. It’ll all be over soon!