It’s that time again. We all picked our favorites at the end of the year; the guilds have spoken; critics groups have doled out their laurels; and now, three months into 2024 it’s time for the Academy to put a bow on the movies of 2023 with the Oscars. In advance of Sunday’s telecast airing on ABC at 4 pm (PDT) – an hour earlier than usual and on the first day of Daylight Saving Time no less – we gathered round the old roundtable to make our predictions on how the awards will (and should) go when all’s said and done. 

Best Picture

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer
Should Win	Oppenheimer	The Zone of Interest	Poor Things

Josh: Honestly this is one of the best fields of nominees that I can remember. There’s only one (Maestro) that I really didn’t like and even there, it’s more a matter of personal preference and not vibing with Bradley Cooper’s directorial choices. 

But let’s not kid ourselves about there being a shred of drama in this race: Oppenheimer has won almost every award possible from every guild and has the overwhelming support from all of the anonymous Oscar ballots. It’s going to win best picture. 

For a minute, I thought Zone of Interest might pull a surprise win. It’s an old trope that The Academy can’t resist a holocaust drama and this one even has Steven Spielberg’s seal of approval that it’s the best he’s seen since his own Oscar-winning Schindler’s List. Glazer’s approach to portraying the deeply unsettling evils of complicity does wonders through omission, focusing on a family who directly benefits from overseeing a genocide. The film’s striking relevance to everything going on in the world right now felt like it might give it a surge, particularly since the category uses ranked choice voting. But then I watched the Spirit Awards where a room full of independent filmmakers stridently ignored a protest for Gaza going on just outside the thin walls of their beachfront tent and I knew it was all over. (Oppenheimer also tackling the revered WWII era and confronting the enduring legacy of decisions made in the twentieth century also takes some of the wind out of Zone’s sails).

Chris: I’ve written plenty about why I think Oppenheimer is the best movie of the year, if not decade. And that was all before it won more awards than a midsize amphitheater can hold. 

Morgen: I’ll be real, I have a few films not on this list that I would prefer to see win the Oscar, but I’ll set that aside. Quite a few of these are fantastic but no single film actually stands out more than the others for me. So to make up for this mediocre feeling I have, I’ll go with the one that dazzled me in the most categories and that’s Poor Things. Yes, the costumes and visuals are beautiful and interesting, the story is intriguing and the acting is delightful. However, the character building on the part of Bella Baxter (Emma Stone) and the female-forward discussions it teases out is what really got me.

Best Director

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Nolan	Nolan	Nolan
Should Win	Nolan	Nolan	Nolan

Josh: Speaking of cascading decisions playing out over decades, outrage over Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight missing the best picture field in 2009 prompted the Academy to expand the field beyond the then-traditional five. All these years later, he’s finally going to get a well-deserved Oscar for setting aside his temporal puzzles. Instead, like the film’s namesake, he wrangled myriad moving pieces – a huge cast, practical effects, sprawling locations, decades of time, quantum physics, period costumes – into a Great Man biopic whose three hour runtime never drags. It’s compelling and challenging entertainment that also made a ton of money with an ambitious theatrical release and no festival launch. This is the kind of work that wins Directing awards and it’s hard to even imagine a case for a challenger, especially because Scorsese already has an Oscar on his shelf.

Chris: It’s usually the case that the director of the Best Picture wins Best Director and I don’t see that changing here. Nolan’s masterpiece should, and will, give him the W here. 

Morgen: My thoughts on best film speaks toward this category too, but if I dismiss what Christopher Nolan has done as the same as the other directors that would be a failing on my part. This was a very long story about a complicated man and he pulled out incredible performances from not only Cillian Murphy but the entire cast.

Best Actor

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Cillian Murphy	Cillian Murphy	Cillian Murphy
Should Win	Jeffrey Wright	Cillian Murphy	Jeffrey Wright

Josh: Apologies to Bradley Cooper’s nose and Paul Giamatti’s walleye, but it looks like the blast radius from Oppenheimer’s overwhelming success are likely to lift Cillian Murphy to into the ionosphere of Oscar glory with a Best Lead Actor win. All he had to do was drop some weight! If a biopic is going to win, it’s refreshing to see it going to a quieter nuanced performance rather than one that’s buried in prosthetics or screaming to the rafters for attention.  

Chris: I think American Fiction is likely to get shut out this year, which is unfortunate because it’s the movie I’ve been recommending to people the most and it’s the funniest movie I’ve seen in a long time. Jeffrey Wright was the perfect choice for this movie, but it’s probably not going to be enough to surpass Cillian Murphy.

Morgen: It’s pretty obvious that the Sunbreak Staff (me included) has resigned that Oppenheimer and the individuals involved will be taking home a bulk of the prizes this Sunday, so Cillian’s name has to be in the “Will Win” category (not undeservedly so but still). Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction was the sarcastic sourpuss I needed complete with commentary on inequality tha that persists

Best Actress

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Gladstone	Gladstone	N/A
Should Win	Hüller	Hüller	N/A

Josh: Seeing the crowd’s reaction to Lily Gladstone’s inspiring win at the Screen Actors Guild awards (still available for streaming on Netflix), I believe that she has Oscar’s most competitive race all tied up. Ever since its Cannes premiere, Gladstone has been the face of the campaign, adding balance and nuance to valid questions about whether Scorsese’s  adaptation of Killers of the Flower Moon does enough to center the Osage people. Her win will be historic and that gives her a boost from an Academy eager to have a Moment. 

If there’s any surprise to be had here, it might be for Sandra Hüller whose electric performance in Anatomy of a Fall had a viral fancast resurgence during the voting period (and whose chilling supporting role in The Zone of Interest had a lot of admirers even if it missed the double nomination). 

Chris: Josh, I’m with you on this one. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit disappointed if Lily Gladstone wins (and is likely to). I also thought Emma Stone excelled in what is probably the most challenging part of the five nominees, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone be excellent in two Best Picture nominees while speaking two different languages (and neither are English). 

Morgen: I didn’t watch enough of these to give a fair opinion but from what I have, this category is stacked!

Best Supporting Actor

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	RDJ	RDJ	De Niro
Should Win	Brown	Ryan Gosling	Gosling/Ruffalo

Josh: This one’s an “It’s Time” win for Robert Downey Jr. Sure, he’s good as Lewis Strauss in the black & white sections that serve as a counterpoint to the film’s full color birthing of the atomic age. The political machinations that seek to take J. Robert Oppenheimer down from his doubting pedestal are animated less by philosophy than personal retribution; and it takes an actor of a certain caliber to communicate how grudges over a series of slights simmer under the skin. Perhaps more important than his performance, though is that RDJ has survived the gauntlet of the MCU, made Hollywood a ton of money, and still doesn’t yet have an Oscar. That slight will soon be remedied. 

I wish that comedic performances could be recognized. Another MCU veteran, Mark Ruffalo returned to the artistic world with the year’s funniest performance as Poor Things’s louche lawyer. His “BELLA!” cracks me up still, but I’d give the prize to Ryan Gosling. His fully-committed turn as Ken – or a version of what kids who play with Barbies think Ken would be – steals Barbie’s spotlight whenever it shines upon him. He’s a large part of why the movie was a four quadrant summer smash. He’s Kenough, give him that statue.

Chris: Sterling K. Brown was great as the imploding brother Jeffrey Wright’s protagonist in American Fiction. I’d be thrilled to see him win, and he’d get my vote if AMPAS gave me a vote. Still, I’ve wanted RDJ to win an Oscar for Chaplin more than thirty years ago so it feels long overdue.

Morgen: It seems like we all admit that Robert Downey Jr. deserves this award, but not necessarily for this performance. That feels a little blech, but we have to take historically amazing actors into account sometimes. That being said, I’m betting on a different horse in Robert De Niro to win it for the same reason. He’s a household name (more than the others), he’s known for good performances (even if this isn’t the best one) and he’s playing the bad guy… for some reason that gives you a bit of an edge too. However, I have a hard time deciding between Gosling and Ruffalo as my personal choice. Both were stellar, hilarious and working outside their norm so I’m hoping for either one here.

Best Supporting Actress

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	DJR	DJR	DJR
Should Win	DJR	Jodie Foster	DJR

Josh: Da’Vine Joy Randolph and should’ve-been-nominated Dominic Sessa elevated the Holdovers beyond the typical smarmy sad sack Giamatti vehicle. She’s won literally every award on the circuit, so the Academy Awards will be her well-deserved victory lap. I’m thrilled for her win, but if I had a ballot, I’d probably throw a little love to Jodie Foster’s name for her much-needed humane counterbalance to Annette Bening’s prickly performance in Nyad.

Chris: I’ve interviewed America Ferrera twice when she’s come to SIFF with some great indie projects she’s done, so I’d be happy to see her win but Da’Vine Joy Randolph was definitely the best part of The Holdovers, and stole nearly every scene from Paul Giamatti. She’ll win and she deserves to.

Original Screenplay

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Past Lives	Anatomy of a Fall	Past Lives
Should Win	Past Lives	Past Lives	The Holdovers

Josh: I’d vote for Past Lives to keep one of my favorite films of the year from going home empty-handed, but would still hope for Anatomy of a Fall to take home the win. NEON sent Messi, the incredible dog actor at the heart of the film, on the campaign trail. Let’s hope his valiant efforts bring home the win for this fascinating French film.

Chris: I prefer, marginally, the script of Past Lives because it feels more inventive to me than Anatomy of a Fall, which is a strong script made stronger by great acting.

Josh: I will say that I’m kind of surprised Anatomy of a Fall didn’t get shuttled over to Adapted like Barbie. I really assumed it was based on The Staircase, a French documentary about a bisexual writer on trial for the mysterious death of his wife after finding her dead at the bottom of the steps. In contrast to the surprisingly compelling Owl Theory of that crime, some silly people have floated a Snoop Theory for Anatomy of a Fall. He would never! Even if Daniel deserved it for playing that P.I.M.P. cover on repeat.

Adapted Screenplay

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer
Should Win	Oppenheimer	Barbie	American Fiction

Josh: There are no wrong answers in this stacked category. I can see any of them winning, but my current prediction is that Oppie fever crests and rewards what was a very compelling cinematic adaptation of a 700+ page biography. With that said, it’s criminal that Greta Gerwig’s artistic and box office triumph might go home empty-handed; so my vote would go to Barbie for turning Mattel’s IP into an emotionally-affecting smash hit of the summer. 

I also wouldn’t be even slightly surprised if American Fiction wins since it’s a crowd-pleasing privilege-skewering comedy that’s about a writer, making it a natural fit for a screenplay award.

Chris: I would be delighted if American Fiction won here because it’s the funniest movie of the year, but I think the adaptation of American Prometheus will be what triumphs here. I wasn’t as taken as you were, Josh, with the Barbie script, which felt like it was aimed towards the terminally-online, but even so, I don’t see a scenario where something other than Oppenheimer wins here.

Animated Feature

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Boy and the Heron	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	The Boy and the Heron
Should Win	The Boy and the Heron	The Boy and the Heron	The Boy and the Heron

Josh: The Boy and the Heron was a career-capping masterwork and my heart breaks that Hayao Miyazaki is probably not going to get another Oscar this year. Not that he cares. Instead, another animated movie that I loved, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse seems poised to follow in the sticky steps of its predecessor and be the rare sequel to nab a second statue.

Chris: I couldn’t imagine not voting for the wonderful The Boy and the Heron, but maybe that’s wishful thinking.

Production Design

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Barbie	Barbie	Barbie
Should Win	Poor Things	Barbie	Poor Things

Josh: Maybe this is where Barbie gets its one win: turning decades of toys into practical sets made Gerwig’s adaptation of a doll facing an existential crisis stand out among so much CGI-based IP.

Chris: I think I’m a little more bullish on what Barbie ends up taking home on Oscar night and this seems like a given, for better or worse. 

Morgen: Barbie was fun, relatable and had all the little easter eggs that made you giggle as you found them. However, Poor Things wasn’t relying on existing nostalgia to create the world in which Bella lived and creates a more impressive picture for me.

Costume Design

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Poor Things	Poor Things	Poor Things
Should Win	Poor Things	Poor Things	Poor Things

Josh: Barbie turned tons of doll clothes into costumes for real people, but Poor Things is a visual feast of imagination realized in fabric. Every frame, setting, and costume are stunning and that should be enough to win here. 

Morgen: This one feels pretty obvious if you read my response for Production Design. Not only did they create beautiful works of wearable art, but they played perfectly into the sets, action and writing. Again, Barbie was stellar but Poor Things pulled these designs and styling from out of the blue without the help of existing assets.

Cinematography

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer
Should Win	Oppenheimer	El Conde	Oppenheimer

Josh: I’d love to see a win for Ed Lachman’s dreamy cinematography of inky black & whites and classic lenses retrofitted to modern cameras for the underseen (but very worthy!) El Conde. But who are we kidding, it’s Oppenheimer’s world, we’re just living in it.

Chris: I have no excuse for not watching El Conde because of my interest in the Pinochet regime in Chile (bad) and the Latin American Boom in literature (good!) so I wish I was slightly more informed to cast my (imaginary) vote, but Oppenheimer’s going to win.

Josh: I feel you on sometimes just missing stuff in the avalanche of movies. It’s on Netflix! Highly encourage everyone to check it out when they can.

Editing

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer
Should Win	Oppenheimer	Anatomy of a Fall	Oppenheimer

Josh: My pick would be Anatomy of a Fall, which cuts together the fascinating procedures of a French courtroom with an unreliable narration in its interrogation of both a potential crime and a troubled marriage. But as above, Oppenheimer is running the table and its ability to weave together multiple timelines of bombs, betrayals, and big ideas is a fully worthy achievement.

Morgen: Despite the incredibly long run time of the film, Oppenheimer was cohesive and rarely gave a feeling of “oh jeez when will this end” or “why is this going on for so long”? Any movie that’s over an hour and a half will bound to have some moments where you want to check your watch, even the Dunes, but the story and characters were so fascinating you didn’t mind.

Makeup and Hairstyling

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Poor Things	Poor Things	Poor Things
Should Win	Poor Things	Poor Things	Poor Things

Josh: This is where I confess that Golda is the only feature film nominated this year that I haven’t seen. It’s on Kanopy, though, so there’s still time. But once again, Bernstein’s nose might’ve been the flashiest prosthetic in the race, but Poor Things created a deeply scarred face for Willem DaFoe which could’ve been a cartoonish horror, but instead communicated the mournful history that animated the questionable experiments of a fatherly scientist.

Chris: The magical realist world-building in Poor Things is a wonder and the makeup is a big part of it. I agree with Josh about Willem DaFoe. I don’t expect Poor Things to win many awards, to my disappointment, but this one should be a sure-thing.

Sound

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Maestro
Should Win	Oppenheimer	The Zone of Interest	Oppenheimer

Josh: This could be a boring night if Oppenheimer’s  “big bomb go boom” takes the trophy. I think there’s a chance that The Zone of Interest, which keeps the horrors of Auschwitz off screen but ever-present in the haunting sound design, wins if enough voters watched it in theaters with well calibrated audio.

Chris: I think a case can be made for Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, which was the summer’s best action movie and the sound was an integral piece of the experience, but Oppenheimer is going to win most, if not all, of the technical awards. And it should.

Visual Effects

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Godzilla Minus One	Godzilla Minus One	Godzilla Minus One
Should Win	Godzilla Minus One	Godzilla Minus One	Godzilla Minus One

Josh: The effects of The Creator were the film’s most impressive quality; Rocket Raccoon is one of the MCU’s greatest achievements, and the painterly battle sequences in Napoleon were jaw-droppingly beautiful horrors of war. But only a fool – or a hardscrabble group of war-ravaged survivors – would dare to stand in the way of the king of all monsters. Give Godzilla his flowers!

Chris: Godzilla Minus One was so well done. The visual effects were great, and probably better than the other nominees, but it was such a sweet story that had me crying at times (not exactly a challenge these days) and it’s one of the best Godzilla movies I’ve ever seen. With this being its only nomination, I can’t help rooting for the big guy.

Morgen: Mainly my choice because this movie deserves at least one win. It may conjure thoughts of rubber beasts and goofy reactions from mass crowds, but the story, design and character building are all more than worthy.

Original Song

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	What I Was Made For	What Was I Made For	What I Was Made For
Should Win	It Never Went Away	I’m Just Ken	I’m Just Ken/The Fire Inside

Josh: This category forced me to watch Flamin’ Hot. One could wish that Diane Warren’s friends would stop punking the Oscars by nominating her ever year for a category that probably shouldn’t exist for a movie that was barely released. As much as I loathe this category, Barbie actually incorporated its songs into the story. It’s sad that they’re making Gosling perform “I’m Just Ken” at the ceremony even when Billie Eilish’s good (but substantially less fun) “What Was I Made For” is almost certainly going to win.

Chris: Josh, I appreciate you putting in the yeoman’s work of watching Flamin’ Hot, which I couldn’t bring myself to do because that story is more urban legend than history. I’m not sure I found a more potent scene in any film than the finale of American Symphony where Jon Batiste plays “It Never Went Away.” It’s so remarkable, especially with the buildup that precedes it. It’s a monumental performance and, sorry, tops either of Barbie’s singles.

Josh: I definitely wouldn’t be mad if Batiste won; as discussed above I was shocked that American Symphony didn’t make the cut. 

Morgen: Ok ok, I added “The Fire Inside” because I want to bring up the film about Flamin’ Hot Cheetos just once and the fact that they made it onto the short list makes me so happy. That being said, “I’m Just Ken”, the choreography, the actors and the song itself bring me so much joy.

Short Films

We … kinda forgot to watch these, but have a couple thoughts on a few categories.

Chris: I liked all of the documentary shorts, except for The ABCs of Book Banning, but The Last Repair Shop is the jewel here. It’s a wonderful, short film about a Los Angeles shop that repairs damaged musical instruments, often for students so they can keep their musical education progressing.

Josh: Unsurprisingly, of the fifteen nominated short films, I’ve only seen the Wes Anderson and unsurprisingly it’s incredibly well crafted with his trademark precision of sets, costumes, talented cast, and wry storytelling. Somehow Asteroid City missed out entirely on any nominations, so it would be a nice consolation prize for Wes Anderson to finally get his Oscar for one in his series of thorny adaptations of Roald Dahl’s stories (in a year that also saw a decidedly sweeter take on a certain candymaker that raked in a ton of holiday cash). 

And with that, we wrap our annual forecasting. Before we go … we’ve rounded up as many anonymous Oscar ballots as we can find from voters who spill their secret choices to publications like Next Best Picture, the Hollywood Reporter, IndieWire, and Entertainment Weekly. Peruse the spreadsheet here if you’re curious how actual Academy members are thinking, as of Friday afternoon, here’s how they were trending:

	Winner	# first place votes	# ballots
Best Picture	Oppenheimer (wins in the 7th round of ranked choice)	14	30
Directing	Oppenheimer	17	28
Actor	Cillian Murphy	12	30
Supporting Actor	Robert Downey Jr.	12	29
Actress	Lily Gladstone	11	30
Supporting Actress	Da’vine Joy Randolph	17	30
Original Screenplay	Past Lives (tie) The Holdovers (tie) Anatomy Of A Fall	8	30
Adapted Screenplay	Oppenheimer	9	29
Cinematography	Oppenheimer	10	21
Film Editing	Oppenheimer	16	21
Animated Feature	Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse	10	20
Documentary Feature	20 Days In Mariupol	9	17
International Feature	The Zone Of Interest	11	18
Costume Design	Poor Things	10	21
Production Design	Barbie	9	21
Makeup and Hairstyling	Poor Things	10	21
Visual Effects	The Creator	9	17
Sound	Oppenheimer	10	19
Original Score	Oppenheimer	11	20
Original Song	“What Was I Made For” From Barbie	5	19
Documentary Short	The ABCs Of Book Banning (tie) The Last Repair Shop	4	9
Animated Short	War Is Over! Inspired By The Music Of John And Yoko (tie) Letter To A Pig	3	11
Live Action Short	The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar	4	11

This year seems pretty chalky; so let’s hope the ceremony has a few surprises left in it to make the telecast and everyone’s Oscar pools a little bit exciting!