It’s that time again! We all picked our favorites at the end of the year; the guilds have spoken; critics groups have doled out their laurels; and now, two months into 2025 it’s time for the Academy to put a bow on the movies of 2024 with the Oscars. In advance of Sunday’s telecast – hosted by Conan O’Brien – we gathered round the old roundtable to make our predictions on how the awards will (and should) go when all’s said and done in almost all of the categories. 

Best Picture

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Brutalist	Anora	The Brutalist
Should Win	I’m Still Here	Nickel Boys	Anora

Josh: Let’s just start this roundtable by marveling at the best picture field. There’s nothing I hate here. Nickel Boys making the nominees put me in the best possible mood when I saw the Oscar nominations on my way to Sundance. Ever since seeing it at Telluride, I developed an unhealthy parasocial obsession with it making it into awards season and fretting over it’s curiously bad rollout. So, I’m not sure if it was just the thrill of seeing RaMell Ross’s wondrous adaptation in the field, but these are great nominations. The Brutalist was up there at the top of my year-end list, love a big swing art movie cleaning up and making a play for the big prize. It’s the destination, after all. The Substance, a best picture contender? Amazing. A Complete Unknown? I expected to roll my eyes at this whole biopic, but Timmy could sing and I appreciated his courage to spend five years learning to sing and play guitar just to make Bob Dylan look like an empty asshole! I don’t even hate Emlia Pérez, just the very bad no good discourse surrounding it, which got further poisoned by some incredibly bad tweets. Studios! When you pick up a movie at Cannes, HIRE A PUBLICIST WHO CAN READ ESPANOL to scrub the timeline. What a nightmare. Wicked was not for me, but it being in here saved us from a war of outrage from the Ari Army. 

If I had a preferential ballot it would look a lot like my year-end list: (1) Nickel Boys, (2) The Brutalist, (3) Anora at the top, followed by (4) Dune: Part Two, (5) Conclave, (6) The Substance, (7) I’m Still Here, (8) A Complete Unknown, (9) Emilia Pérez, (10) Wicked. It’s very hard to make a pick!

Chris: I’m pretty stumped by this, too. At the time I’m writing this, I’ve only seen eight of the ten nominees (with Nickel Boys and The Brutalist being the two I haven’t seen yet). Wicked, I’m Still Here, and A Complete Unknown are the only best picture nominees I’d give thumbs-up to. I’m pulling for I’m Still Here but I just don’t see any path for that to happen. 

Morgen: I also have only seen eight of the ten nominees, Emilia Perez and I’m Still Here are the two missing and I think it’s to my detriment. I may do a last little push this weekend to catch them before the big event. In any case, I’m with you both in that we are rich with quality movies up for best of. Nickel Boys is incredible but difficult and as I mentioned in my review, A Complete Unknown was well acted but the story itself just annoyed the hell out of me shining a light on Dillon’s crappy personality. What’s really great about this group is the diversity of styles, actors and stories. 

Josh: But in the predictions game, all signs point to Anora’s win: it got top prizes from the writers, directors, and producers guilds – the last time a movie did this and didn’t win was when Brokeback Mountain got Crash’d (please let’s not repeat that dark period of Academy history). When and if it almost definitely wins, that’s going to be awesome for Sean Baker and everyone else involved. 

Chris: I think Josh is right about the momentum surrounding Anora, but I just didn’t think it was that good. It certainly had more screaming than I needed, or wanted. I didn’t hate Emilia Perez, either, but I also didn’t think it was one of the ten best movies of the year. Oh my goodness, the discourse. Emilia Perez is an unfocused, incurious, weakly-paced movie. It’s not bad, just too flawed to be considered one of the ten best movies of the year, IMO. I thought Karla Sofia Gascon was actually pretty great and deserving of her Best Actress nomination and find it silly that bad tweets should keep a woman of color and the first trans actress to be nominated for an acting Oscar from attending the ceremony.

Josh: But with the agony of a devoted cardinal reading the room’s shifting alliances, I’m looking at the recent wins from SAG and BAFTA entertaining some doubts. Will Conclave pull off a Conclave-worthy surprise win? Aside from the recency bias, it’s a crowd-pleasing ensemble piece with a great ending and much less nudity, sex, and screaming (I can’t think of a best picture winner in this century with as many lap dances, let alone speedy sex scenes as Anora).

Both have knockout endings that are extremely memorable, but the Oscars often love a movie that leaves you with feeling good with a surprise smile rather than one that leaves you walking out of the cinema uncertain that anyone’s ever going to be OK again. 

Morgen: I think that Conclave is definitely a favorite in this category but I don’t think it’s going to win. Anora does have a lot of hype going for it and it really has the right combination of humor, drama and tension; I was hooked in the first ten minutes. That being said, Wicked is a fun favorite and would make viewers really happy (though I don’t think it’s worthy of this award, it’s still a fantastic movie). The Brutalist has a good chance of winning, but it takes effort to get through the whole thing, so I’m not sure that works in its favor. While you don’t necessarily look at your watch while viewing it, it’s stressful throughout and the runtime is crazy.

Best Directing

• Sean Baker, Anora
• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Sean Baker	Sean Baker	Sean Baker
Should Win	Coralie Fargeat	Coralie Fargeat	Coralie Fargeat

Josh: Sean Baker has it in the bag. I was wowed by the Brutalist far more than I enjoyed the Substance, but at this point I’d reward Coralie Fargeat’s third act excesses over Corbet’s muddled second act (and even thornier epilogue). Also, three women in history have won Oscars for directing, let’s make it four.

Chris: I’m surprised by how I’m agreeing with Josh on this one, because I really did not enjoy The Substance, yet find myself rooting for a win for Coralie Fargeat. I admire the risks she takes, and The Substance is nothing if it isn’t bold. 

Morgen: I honestly don’t know who will get this one, so I went along with what you folks chose. I would love to see Coralie Fargeat snag this one because of the wicked, snarky, sarcastic tone prominent throughout The Substance is so well crafted and the performances she pulled from the two leads was just *chef’s kiss*. I had a hard time with this film, because of the subject matter… it’s almost like second-hand embarrassment but with the ick instead? I dunno, but I recognize how amazing the film is and I think a great deal of that is because of the directing.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Adrien Brody	Timothée Chalamet	Ralph Fiennes
Should Win	Timothée Chalamet	Adrien Brody	Adrien Brody

Josh: It’s the destination that matters and if anyone can stop Adrien Brody’s journey it’s the naked ambition and hard work of Timmy Chalamet, who really was a great, super-annoying, Bob Dylan. Adrien’s already got one statue; Chalamet is a bona fide movie star who fronted two money-making Best Picture nominees this year, plus the Oscars love a transformation especially when it comes with a few dozen songs. If Rami Malek could win for impersonating Freddie Mercury, why not Chalamet for learning to sing and play the guitar just like Dylan in this movie?

Morgen: Like we were discussing for best film, Conclave is generally a favorite because of the stacked cast and Ralph Fiennes just seems like the expected choice this year. Don’t get me wrong, I love Timothee Chalamet, he did a fantastic job pulling us into Dylan’s world. He’s really been on a roll in the past few years (though my favorite will always be Call Me by Your Name) but I just can’t get over Bob’s crappy personality in this story so I can’t bring myself to say he’ll win anything.

Morgen: Adrien Brody was mesmerizing in The Brutalist. Like I mentioned earlier, the runtime of the film was rough, but I barely noticed three hours had passed when the credits rolled and I can’t imagine that anyone could have done that role as well. There was such complexity to the character and in many subtle ways he made us both love and hate him. 

Chris: I don’t have a horse in this race. I do think Timmy C. was quite good as Bob Dylan and thought Ralph Fiennes was also good.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Demi Moore, The Substance
• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Mikey Madison	Demi Moore	Demi Moore
Should Win	Karla Sofía Gascón	Mikey Madison	Mikey Madison

Josh: This is the biggest drama of the night! Demi Moore picked up a big win from SAG-AFTRA and while sometimes these are “she’s due” career achievement awards, her win would be for a fearless performance in a not-at-all Oscar-bait movie. I’d be thrilled.

Still, I think Mikey Madison should win, not only for her “gives us the world” performance, she’d be the only Best Actress nominee that I had to navigate walk past at a crowded film festival party and to whom I gushed “YOUR MOVIE WAS SOOOO GOOD” while balancing a plate of snacks. So for her grace in that moment of awkwardness, she gets my vote.

Chris: I guess I’m going to be “that guy,” but I do think Karla Sofía Gascón gave the best performance of everyone in this category (though that’d be moot if Pamela Anderson had gotten the nomination she deserved for The Last Showgirl). She is the best part of a mostly-bad movie.

Josh: I agree: it’s heartbreaking that the first openly trans best actress nominee self-immolated through bad tweets that became a toxic campaign, but you’re right that she is very good in Emilia Pérez. What seems to have confused (and enraged) so many is that Emilia is bad throughout and not some saint who’s redeemed through gender-affirming surgery! Whether a cartel boss or a bossy philanthropist Mrs. Doubtfiring her own children, she’s ever power-mad and convinced that money can buy happiness, love, and redemption. That it doesn’t work is the whole point!! But somewhere along the line, the movie, director, cast, and publicity team allowed the progressive casting to convince themselves that they were telling a progressive story instead of a telenovela-inspired satire. What a mess.

Chris: I was also fond of Fernanda Torres. She was very, very good as the wife of a former politician who got kidnapped and disappeared.

Josh: For sure, I would be pleasantly surprised if Fernanda Torres surges through the power of Brazil, who are treating I’m Still Here’s historic nomination like the moon landing. 

Chris: Mikey Madison will win, and she is good, but her performance also gave me a splitting headache with all of the yelling and screaming.

Josh: As a lunatic aside: when’s the last time someone won an Oscar for calling a nice guy an f-slur multiple times in a movie? Not at all what you love to see, I’m not going to look it up, but it has to be historic. 

Morgen: I’m gonna throw a wrench in the works here and say that Demi is gonna get the award. While Mikey was absolutely convincing and solid in Anora, The Substance was so uncomfortable for me I had trouble finishing it; that’s mainly because I was so lost in Demi’s performance that I had a physical reaction to the story. Thinking on it, it’s sort of a combination effort between Moore and co-star Margaret Qualley, but honestly Moore just absolutely killed it. 

Josh: Tough that Qualley missed the supporting field, but remember: they are one.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Yura Borisov – Anora
• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain 
• Edward Norton –  A Complete Unknown 
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist 
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Kieran Culkin	Kieran Culkin	Guy Pearce
Should Win	Edward Norton	Jeremy Strong	Kieran Culkin

Josh: While I’m ranting and going off script: Justice for Mark Eydelshteyn! Nothing against Yura Borisov, but Anora does not work at all without his goofy, alluring performance as a complete loser of rich kid who’s also fun enough that he convinces an otherwise smart dancer to marry him. He was just completely fantastic in a role that could’ve been odious. Anyway, Kieran’s gonna win. Jeremy Strong was terrifying and – perhaps more impressive – tragic as Roy Cohn in an uncomfortable movie that current events made even more painful to watch.

Chris: I found that puzzling, too, Josh. Mark Eydelshteyn was pretty great as the saddest type of the most-privileged persons: failson of the oligarchy. Still, my vote would go to Edward Norton for his performance as folkie legend Pete Seeger. I thought Norton handled the role beautifully. 

Morgen: I don’t know why I was a little unsure about this one, maybe it was the horrifying (and almost unnecessary) moment in The Brutalist where Guy Pearce’s characters showed us the depths of his domineering and self-loathing that it’s hard to want him (the character) to win? Not sure why I think he will win, maybe because of that scene? Anyway, I was highly engaged and impressed by Kieran Culkin’s performance in A Real Pain. I really enjoyed that film, but it didn’t feel like it was up to the level of other nominees in other categories. If he wins here like my fellows believe, then I’d be satisfied.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande – Wicked
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Zoe Saldaña	Zoe Saldaña	Zoe Saldaña
Should Win	Isabella Rossellini	Zoe Saldaña	Felicity Jones

Josh: It’s time … for the Emilia discourse to end and for Zoe Saldaña to have her Oscar. This messed up movie is at its most compelling when she’s on screen. Give her her flowers, if not for the movie, then for the grace of navigating this movie’s catastrophic campaign.

Chris: Yeah, with thirteen nominations for Emelia Perez, Oscar statues will need to go somewhere and because I see a thirteen-nom shutout unlikely, I think rewarding Zoe Saldaña is the safest bet. Of the nominees, though, I think Ariana Grande might have given the best performance but Isabella Rossellini is a friend of the SunBreak and nothing would make me happier than seeing her take  home a golden statue. Plus she does provide the moral center in Conclave. 

Morgen: Even though I haven’t seen the film, I know enough about it and the hype that I think Zoe is going to win. That being said, because I haven’t seen Emilia Perez, I’ll have to rely on the characters I have seen. I’ve seen lots of folks mention Isabella Rossellini, but honestly her part was so small I didn’t think it deserved to be in this list… But it’s her so I guess that is enough. It’s not that her role was forgettable, it just didn’t have much impact at all on the story… the character was a catalyst to controversy and that’s about the end of it. Felicity Jones on the other hand had a huge impact in the film and the story  in my eyes.

Original Screenplay

• Anora – Sean Baker
• The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
• A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
• September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
• The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Anora	Anora	Anora
Should Win	September 5	A Real Pain	The Substance

Josh: No bad picks here, really, but this might be lifted by the big Anora wave, putting Sean Baker in contention to set a record of four Oscars for a single film. If I was voting, I’d cast by ballot for A Real Pain. It’s the most obviously writerly movie and if I were a voter I’d want to throw Jesse Eisenberg a bone for this pretty incredible achievement of writing, acting, and directing.

Chris: I’m not sure that this is the best category for September 5, which I do think is the best film in this category. The cinematography, costume, set design, and acting are where this movie excels. 

Morgen: While the subject matter of The Substance isn’t new, the tension and method felt unique. It’s really funny that I’m fighting for a film that made me feel so uncomfortable, but I can appreciate a work despite my personal reactions. Either way, I think Anora will win for the same reasons we wrote in previous discussions and I’m not disappointed in that pick, but it wouldn’t be my first choice.

Adapted Screenplay

• A Complete Unknown – Jay Cocks and James Mangold
• Conclave – Peter Straughan
• Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
• Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
• Sing Sing – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Conclave	Conclave	A Complete Unknown
Should Win	Nickel Boys	Nickel Boys	Nickel Boys

Josh: I am resigned to admit that it really seems like Conclave is the sure bet. This thing plays like the airport novel it is, who doesn’t love scheming priests, especially when their schemes are this juicy and the plots are so twisty, but I am pulling so hard for a surprise Nickel Boys win here (willing it into existence by believing it’ll be like Women Talking and American Fiction before it, two previous Best Pic nominees whose other nomination was in this category). As I’ve repeated over and over again, it’s an audacious act of interpretation that uses innovative cinematic grammar to bring the novel to the screen.

Morgen: Nickel Boys is a well-done film with a unique perspective (literally and figuratively) but it just didn’t speak to me the way other films did for best picture or director. That being said, it’s a “terrible” story that needs telling. The way it was laid out for us to feel what the characters were going through was well done and that’s thanks to the screenplay.

Chris: I would be delighted with a winner that adapted a Colson Whitehead into a film. Conclave will probably win, though. 

Documentary Feature

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	No Other Land	Porcelain War	n/a
Should Win	Black Box Diaries	No Other Land	n/a

Josh: Bless the Docs Branch for craftily keeping all the saccharine crowd pleasers, celebrity hagiographies, and easy weepies out of this field (ahem, Super/Man and Piece By Piece). Instead, they nominated a slate of amazing, urgent, essential films that challenge the form and raise awareness of some pretty weighty issues. They are all more than worth your time (and tears). 

Morgen: Again this year I fell sadly short in viewing the films in this category so I’ll let the others take the lead on this one.

Josh: No Other Land is far and away my choice, but for the same reasons that no American distributor has been brave enough to pick it up, I worry that it doesn’t stand a chance with voters who might not even watch it for fear of being permanently radicalized against Israel’s apartheid state and campaign of inflicting decades of misery upon the Palestinian people. 

So, in preparation for a broken heart, I’m predicting Porcelain War – a somewhat muddled, but still moving film made by and about artists turned soldiers in the Ukraine War – to win: for the quality of the filmmaking, the more easy-to-unite around message (RUSSIA SUX), and the very cute dog (and very charming sculptures). 

International Feature

• I’m Still Here – Brazil 
• The Girl with the Needle – Denmark 
• Emilia Pérez – France
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
• Flow – Latvia

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	I’m Still Here	I’m Still Here	N/A
Should Win	I’m Still Here	The Seed of the Sacred Fig	N/A

Josh: For months, this looked like a cakewalk for Emilia Pérez but like the lesson its title antihero refused to learn, huge piles of money can’t buy you everything and your star having a history of toxic tweets can send much of the tower toppling. The Seed of the Sacred Fig, a potent allegory of life in Iran amid crackdowns on free expression, filmed in secrecy and having sent director Mohammad Rasoulof into exile to avoid arrest, has gotten unfortunately lost in the shuffle. It’s outstanding, twisty, and infuriating and would probably get my vote, but I suspect the voters are going to swing for another exceptional movie about enduring life under fascism, Brazil’s poignant and moving entry I’m Still Here. 

Morgen: This one, I’m incredibly ashamed to say, is another category where I didn’t get to see enough of the nominated films. This is usually my favorite category… promise I’ll do better for you all next year!

Animated Feature

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Wild Robot	Flow	Flow
Should Win	Wallace & Gromit	The Wild Robot	Flow

Morgen: I’ve been singing the praises of Flow since I watched it quite a few months ago. Without a single word, the narrative spoke volumes.. While the animation style isn’t my favorite, I was swept away in the story.

Josh: Flow’s social media campaign and underdog (undercat?) story might get it a win. But I have to say that maybe I’m just not a cat person. I loved being mesmerized by the 1990s-like screensaver animation in Flow, but Wild Robot’s hand-painted look is a major advance and phenomenal to watch. I was in tears for most of it, just the best emotional manipulation of the year. It easily has my vote [caveat: I never watched Memoir of a Snail because I never quite found the time that I wanted to be emotionally devastated, which is everyone’s highest praise for this movie.

Cinematography

• The Brutalist
• Dune: Part Two 
• Emilia Pérez
• Maria
• Nosferatu

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Brutalist	The Brutalist	Dune: Part Two
Should Win	Nosferatu	Maria	Nosferatu

Josh: It’s bizarro that Jomo Fray didn’t make it in here for the audacious, transporting, first-person filmmaking in Nickel Boys (but I’m not allowing myself to be mad … the film got two very high-profile nominations). My guess is that The Brutalist picks up a deserving win. Not only is the entire 3.5 hour running time never not gorgeous, they made bringing back VistaVision, printing to 70mm, and  parading those massive reels around from festival to festival. My guess is that counts for something, enough to pull it ahead of this crowded field. 

Morgen: I was sorta torn on this one which I think should win. The texture of The Brutalist was pretty incredible and was absolutely a piece in the puzzle to making the film great, but Nosferatu needed it to be incredible or the movie just wouldn’t have worked. I think that’s why I didn’t consider it for too many other awards because it relied heavily on certain aspects and fell short on others… but cinematography wasn’t one of them. Dune won’t win many, so I think as a fan favorite this might be one that they’ll hand over as a people pleaser but we’ll see.

Josh: Even though I liked the Brutalist much much more, what Ed Lachman did with the beautiful mess of Maria was astonishing and the fact that he still doesn’t have an Oscar is silly. If I were in the Academy I’d give him an “It’s Time” vote for his phenomenal work in the operatic biopic.

Editing

• Anora
• The Brutalist 
• Conclave 
• Emilia Pérez 
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Conclave	Conclave	Conclave
Should Win	Wicked	Conclave	Anora

Josh: shrug emoji, I have no idea how I’d vote here. Usually the most editing wins, so I’m going Conclave in both.  

Morgen: Conclave honestly deserves the win if it does end up falling that way, but there were a few films that used editing in an impressive way to enhance the storytelling, so I think it could go to almost any of the nominees. I’m a little surprised that The Substance didn’t make it into this list, and I probably would have put that down in the should win box, but since it didn’t I think Anora was solid and added humor in places that wouldn’t have worked without timing from the actors and editing, so I’ll go with that.

Production Design

• The Brutalist
• Dune: Part Two
• Nosferatu
• Conclave
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Brutalist	Wicked	Nosferatu
Should Win	Nosferatu	The Brutalist	The Brutalist

Josh: Wow, we’re all over the place on this one. I thought Wicked looked like trash, but the sets were indeed very cool, the failure was in unnervingly bad cinematography and perplexing lighting choices. Plus, as a very popular adaptation of a very popular musical, this category feels like a place to acknowledge one of the year’s most financially successful films. My vote would go to The Brutalist, for the forced perspective bookcases alone. Seeing them was the first time the film moved me to tears.

Morgen: I had a hard time choosing here too. Josh is a being a bit of a brutalist with his bagging on Wicked, I thought it was pretty fun, but I don’t think it was up to the caliber necessarily of the rest of the list (again, fan favorites have to pop in there for the awards to feel relevant… I guess?) Anyhoo, Nosferatu might find its way into this win as well, production was well done, but the sheer amount of production design required to make The Brutalist feel cohesive is impressive so I’m going with that one as my personal pick.

Costume Design

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Wicked	Wicked	Nosferatu
Should Win	Wicked	Conclave	Nosferatu

Josh: See above, I think fantasy has an edge and takes the prize. I might vote for Conclave, though. I read that the real robes that the Cardinals wear are kind of cheap and costumey; so the costume designer Lisy Christl had to elevate the vestments and add accessories to make what could’ve been a bland sea of red pop into a collection of distinct characters. Whether it’s part of the costume is up for debate, but there should be a special prize for Tedesco’s egregious vape. 

Morgen: Once again, the texture of Nosferatu is the reason the film worked for me at all. It was a fantastic homage to the original 1922 silent German film of the same name but with an updated twist and I think that’s a bit hard to pull off without copying the original too closely. The connection was there but it wasn’t too duplicative. I think it deserves the win… though there are some really gorgeous moments using the costuming to build suspense and beautiful shots with those red robes as metaphor in Conclave.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Different Man
• Emilia Pérez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Substance	The Substance	The Substance
Should Win	Wicked	The Substance	The Substance

Josh: MonstroElisaSue FTW here.

Morgen: Honestly no contest here for me, The Substance was highly stylized and I can’t imagine it working any other way. The 80’s/90’s look isn’t terribly difficult, but the mood of the film changed as it progressed and that was aided with the makeup and styling.

Sound

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	A Complete Unknown	A Complete Unknown	Wicked
Should Win	A Complete Unknown	A Complete Unknown	A Complete Unknown

Josh: The loudest often wins, but we’ve got three musical films nominated. Sorry to Dune: Part Two, A Complete Unknown gets it for capturing and mixing the live performances that have been a big part of the film’s narrative.

Morgen: Despite having a strong aversion to the film, I can’t deny that the actors singing the music themselves created a sense of cohesiveness and authenticity that makes it the best pick. I have a sneaking suspicion that Wicked will take this award. So much of the film relies on the music that it’s hard to separate sound from soundtrack and will slide into the winning spot.

Visual Effects

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	Dune: Part Two	Dune: Part Two	Dune: Part Two
Should Win	Wicked	Dune: Part Two	Dune: Part Two

Josh: Multiple monkey movies (ed: two of them are apes, only one is monkeys of the flying variety) in the hunt?!? Alien: Romulus’s face-huggers were scary A.F., but no one’s forgiving the AI resurrection of Ian Holm. I feel like Dune has to win some technical categories and Spaceships and Sandworm >> Simians. It also gets my “should win” vote too because it’s my favorite of the bunch.

Morgen: Again, I have to give it up for The Substance here, I’m a little bummed it didn’t at least make it into the list… so I have to mention that. But, Dune: Part Two, just as with Part One, pulled me in with its realistic fantasy creatures so I have to go with that for my win.

Original Score

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	The Brutalist	The Brutalist	Conclave
Should Win	Wicked	The Brutalist	The Brutalist

Josh: The four-note horn theme sticks in everyone’s head and it’s a great score, but I might have written-in Reznor & Ross’s Challengers here as a protest vote. 

Morgen: Not really sure why I chose Conclave to win here, but it just feels like this is one of those categories where they’ll go with something crowd–pleasing. Not that The Brutalist falls outside that, but Conclave (again with the stacked cast) is more favored by audiences. Either way, Josh’s feelings echo mine (aside from the Challengers comment ha!)

Original Song

• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
• Like A Bird – Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
• Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
• Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

	Chris	Josh	Morgen
Will Win	El Mal	El Mal	N/A
Should Win	El Mal	Like A Bird	N/A

Josh: What we learn from this category every year is it doesn’t take many first place votes to get a song nominated in a small branch. I don’t know if it’s kindness or trolling at this point, but regularly nominating a Diane Warren song from a terrible movie that no one saw has to end. It’s gross and must be stopped. I loathe this category and think it should be either eliminated or reformed such that only songs germane to the film itself, and not its closing titles, should be eligible. 

Morgen: I feel like I can’t add my two cents in here because I fell short in watching these nominees so I’ll leave it to the others.

Josh: Gripes about this category aside, “El Mal”, Zoe Saldaña, and that red velvet suit is  the knockout performance of the troubled Emilia Pérez and it advances the plot. My vote would go to “Like a Bird” just so that Sing Sing could get anything after A24 botched its release and abandoned its awards campaign to put all their weight behind The Brutalist.

Short Films

Morgen: Didn’t watch any of these, ugh… i usually see at least some shorts.

Chris: I did actually watch some of these! I Am Ready, Warden is absolutely heartbreaking. It centers around the effect an execution has on the families of both the victims and the convicted. The Only Girl in the Orchestra is a little lighter fare, about a woman who is chosen as the first woman in the New York Philharmonic by Leonard Berstein. I liked them both. 

Josh: Once again I have failed/refused to catch up on the short films. My predictions, based only on listening to other awards season podcasts are: Yuck! (animated), Incident (Documentary), and Anuja (Live). Sorry, but also not sorry.

I guess that’s a wrap on our annual Oscars discourse. Even if we didn’t help anyone at home with their Oscar pool, it’s fun as always chatting with you guys as we put last year in movies to bed before Hollywood’s biggest night. Hope we have some fun parties and surprises in store!